Capital Realigned: How the Global Private Markets Reset Can Power Africa’s Rise

The recently released McKinsey Global Private Markets Review 2024 highlights a defining shift in the world of private capital. After years of record fundraising, abundant leverage, and outsized returns, private markets have entered a new phase—one shaped by higher interest rates, tighter capital flows, and a growing demand for operational substance over financial spectacle.

But within this recalibration lies a remarkable opening—especially for Africa.

As global investors rethink their playbooks, Africa’s real economy, demographic dynamism, and innovation-driven sectors present timely answers to the world’s capital questions. This is not just an opportunity. It is a strategic inflection point.

Global Headwinds Meet Structural Evolution

According to McKinsey:

• Private equity fundraising fell to $649 billion, a steep decline from prior years.

• Deal volume dropped 21%, reflecting a more cautious investment environment.

• Dry powder reached $3.7 trillion, signaling ample capital supply—but with new deployment discipline.

The traditional drivers of value creation—leverage and valuation expansion—are fading. In their place, investors are turning toward growth fundamentals, operational improvements, and long-term alignment.

This is where Africa's case becomes compelling.

Africa: The Frontier of Real-World Value

Africa has long been seen as a "frontier market" — yet in this new cycle, its defining characteristics have become strategic advantages:

• Agrifood and climate-smart innovations rooted in necessity and scale

• Renewable infrastructure and energy access built for resilience

• Fintech and digital inclusion reaching underserved populations

• Health and essential services increasingly driven by localized innovation

These sectors are not only investable — they are increasingly where global growth and impact converge.

With nearly 1.5 billion people, a median age under 20, and a generation of founders solving hard problems with real-world ingenuity, Africa is no longer simply "rising." It’s redefining how investment and development can work in tandem.

Strategic Imperatives for the Moment

At Origencia, we believe this global capital shift requires an equally bold strategic response from all sides:

For African founders and businesses:

• Build for depth, not just pitch decks.

• Tell investment stories rooted in execution, scale, and local intelligence.

• View capital as a long-term partner in growth — not just a funder.

  
  

For global investors:

• Rethink your risk frameworks — Africa’s risk is often misunderstood, and its resilience is underpriced.

• Seek operators and funds with sectoral depth and local execution edge.

• Align with long-horizon, purpose-driven returns.

  
  

For policymakers and development actors:

• Build enabling ecosystems for capital to flow and stay.

• Incentivize blended finance and derisking tools for early-stage sectors.

• Promote transparency and data-driven narratives to reshape perception.

  
  

A Global Reset That Aligns with Africa’s Ascent

As the world’s financial systems seek clarity and resilience, Africa is not just a recipient of capital—it can be a co-author of a new investment ethos. One that prizes integrity, impact, and innovation at the core.

Origencia Group exists to help unlock that alignment. We support governments, investors, and enterprises in navigating complexity with data, foresight, and strategy — because we believe the future of private capital will be shaped not just by numbers, but by narratives and nations ready to lead.