Why Today’s Stability May Be Misleading

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz on February 28, 2026, has created one of the most significant disruptions to global oil and LNG flows in modern energy market history. Yet the full economic impact has not fully appeared in headline indicators.

That is the central risk.

Fuel remains available in many markets. Industrial activity has not collapsed. Prices have retreated from April highs. But this apparent stability is being supported by three temporary buffers: cargoes already in transit, coordinated strategic reserve releases, and futures markets still pricing in a near-term diplomatic resolution.

Origencia’s latest insight, Global Energy Markets Under Stress, examines why these buffers may be masking a deeper supply shock and what could happen as they weaken.

By April 2026, global oil supply had fallen to approximately 95.1 million barrels per day, with cumulative losses reaching 12.8 million barrels per day relative to pre-conflict levels. Brent crude reached an intraday peak of roughly $138 per barrel on April 7 before retreating as reopening expectations improved.

The report argues that the key question is not only whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens. It is whether markets are overestimating how quickly energy flows, shipping schedules, inventories, insurance conditions, and industrial supply chains can normalize after reopening.

What the report covers

The report examines:

• Why the current market environment may reflect buffered disruption rather than true resilience

• How strategic reserves, oil already in transit, and futures-market expectations are delaying visible impact

• Why the adjustment may come through demand destruction, not only higher prices

• Which sectors face the greatest exposure, including agriculture, shipping, LNG-reliant manufacturing, construction, and semiconductors

• Why reopening the Strait of Hormuz may not mean immediate normalization

• The early warning signals decision-makers should monitor

  
  

Key insight

Stability, in this context, is not a condition. It is a temporary consequence of buffers that are finite, declining, and increasingly difficult to replace.

The sectors and geographies most exposed are identifiable now. The warning signals are already moving. The window for proactive positioning remains open. It will not remain open indefinitely.

The full report includes the complete buffer analysis, sector exposure framework, and early warning indicators.

Analysis reflects information available as of June 1, 2026.