Africa at a Governance Crossroads: What the 2024 IIAG Reveals About Progress, Perception, and Power
- By Cedric Habiyaremye, PhD
- Jun 4
- 4 min read
The 2024 edition of the Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG) is as sobering as it is revealing. After a decade of uneven but tangible progress, the data shows that Africa’s governance trajectory has come to a virtual standstill. Since 2022, the continent has made almost no measurable gains in its overall governance performance. In fact, for nearly half of Africa’s population, governance outcomes in 2023 are worse than they were in 2014.
Yet this stagnation is not a uniform story; it’s a mosaic of diverging national trajectories, deepening governance trade-offs, and hopeful breakthroughs in unexpected places.
A Continental Balancing Act: Development Without Democracy?
What stands out most sharply is the widening governance paradox: while Africa has made significant headway in areas like infrastructure, gender equality, and health, there has been a concurrent and sustained deterioration in foundational areas such as security, participation, accountability, and the rule of law.
From 2014 to 2023, Africa recorded:
+7.1 points in Infrastructure
+6.9 points in Women’s Equality
+3.5 points in Health
Yet at the same time:
-5.0 points in Security & Safety
-4.5 points in Participation
-2.8 points in Rights
-1.4 points in Accountability & Transparency
This reflects a dangerous trade-off: a model of development that increasingly sidelines democratic values, civic freedoms, and legal safeguards. It is a trend with high long-term costs.
As I see it, we must ask: can social and economic progress truly be sustainable if it is built on eroding democratic foundations?
Governance Shifts: Progress and Reversals
The Index uncovers striking shifts in country performance, highlighting both renewal and regression:
Top Risers:
Seychelles: Now Africa’s top performer (+10.0), improving in all 16 sub-categories.
Gambia and Somalia: Two of the most improved countries, despite low rankings, showing that positive reform is possible even in fragile contexts.
Morocco: Ranks #1 in Infrastructure, with standout gains in digital access and judicial impartiality.
Biggest Decliners:
Tunisia: Now the most deteriorated country (-4.7), largely due to dramatic backsliding in participation and transparency.
Botswana and Mauritius: Once continental models of stability, both now show troubling declines in anti-corruption and democratic resilience.
The index reminds us that governance trajectories are rarely linear. The same country can simultaneously experience progress in health and infrastructure while deteriorating in civil liberties or public trust. Governance is dynamic, and resilience requires balance across all pillars.
Steady Climbers: Quiet Gains, Strategic Momentum
Beyond the sharp risers and dramatic fallers, a quieter story emerges: countries that may not grab headlines but are steadily building strong governance foundations. Rwanda is a prime example.
Ranked 11th out of 54 countries in the IIAG, Rwanda has shown consistent gains in infrastructure, access to energy, statistical capacity, and digital governance. These improvements reflect long-term investments in public systems, policy coherence, and institutional efficiency. The country is also catching up with the two consistently top-ranked countries in Business & Labor Environment. The two top-performing countries, Mauritius and South Africa, have kept the same ranking (1st and 2nd). Rwanda has caught up from 6th to 3rd place. While the report indicated challenges remain in areas like civic space and participation, Rwanda’s trajectory underscores the power of intentional governance reform even in complex political environments.
Other countries like Namibia, Ghana, and Senegal also reflect this pattern of steady, if uneven, improvement. They may not be the most improved year-to-year, but they offer models of resilience, with progress in foundational sectors like education, health, and rule of law.
These “steady climbers” serve as a reminder: real governance transformation is not always rapid or headline-grabbing—it is iterative, often invisible, and deeply strategic.
The Data-Perception Gap: When Progress Isn’t Felt
A particularly striking insight is the growing disconnect between measured improvements and citizen perceptions. Across numerous dimensions, especially in health provision, economic opportunities, and accountability, public sentiment is declining even when metrics suggest improvement.
This should concern every policymaker and development actor. Because perception, not just data, shapes trust. And unmet expectations, especially among Africa’s youth, are fertile ground for unrest, migration, and democratic fatigue.
Noteworthy Trends to Watch
The report identifies 10 indicators with the most significant improvement. Three of them—Mobile Communications (+19.8), Internet & Computers (+16.2), and Access to Energy (+7.2)—highlight digital infrastructure’s growing role in Africa’s transformation. Yet the report cautions that despite progress, scores remain low in absolute terms, pointing to the work still ahead to bridge the digital divide.
Similarly, the indicator Laws on Violence Against Women (+16.7) is the second most improved continent-wide. This suggests legal reform momentum, but the journey toward full gender equality remains unfinished.
On the other side, the sharpest declines are seen in Freedom of Association & Assembly, Public Perception of Anti-Corruption, and Public Perception of Security; a collective signal that Africa’s civic space is shrinking, even as connectivity expands.
With over 60% of Africa’s population under 25, this disconnect becomes even more dangerous. If young people don’t feel part of the governance conversation, if they see governments delivering services but not listening, then dissatisfaction will eventually seek expression elsewhere, often outside the system.
Looking Ahead: A Call for Holistic Reform
The 2024 IIAG paints a nuanced picture. Africa is not moving backward wholesale. But it is dangerously imbalanced. Economic and social investments are not matched by equal emphasis on rights, inclusion, and the rule of law. This is not sustainable.
What we need is a whole-of-governance approach; one that doesn’t merely pursue growth or infrastructure, but also fortifies the democratic scaffolding on which enduring progress must rest.
Governments, civil society, investors, and regional bodies must reimagine reform as mutually reinforcing progress across all dimensions: political, economic, social, and environmental.
In an age where data is power, the IIAG is not just a scorecard; it is a mirror. The question is: will Africa’s leaders look into that mirror and act?
This article is part of Origencia’s ongoing analysis of governance and development trends across Africa.
